Topic Host: Shannon Stowell
May 28, 2008
"A growing number of diplomats and policy analysts now express satisfaction that earlier predictions of a widely nuclearized world have been proved wrong, but it is largely just the timing that was off. Non-proliferation functionaries would earnestly disagree with such a gloomy assessment, as they must because of the business they are in. It is natural that they cite their successes, and necessary that they struggle on. But despite the occasional collapse of nuclear-weapons programs, and the inconveniencing of programs in place,... over the years few can have harbored illusions about the trend. Proliferation is a ratcheting affair that moves in fits and starts, and often slips backwards, but gradually and incrementally progresses. Diplomatic efforts to suppress it are weakened by national jealousies, UN-style dithering, higher geopolitical priorities, the sheer volume of international trade, and, at the most fundamental level, the inability of the Great Powers themselves to disarm. In a world where perhaps ten countries have already acquired the bomb, and another thirty have the capacity to build one relatively fast, rational reasons for choosing that path will now and then arise. If even Pakistan can go nuclear, almost any other nation can as well."
-- William Langewiesche, from "The Point of No Return"
U.S.-India Nuclear Cooperation: http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/npr/vol14/143/143weiss.pdf
North Korea: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/2340405.stm and attached file
Iran: Attached file via email
Additional Readings (for anyone interested):
The Wrath of Khan: http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200511/aq-khan
The Point of No Return: http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200601/aq-khan
May 28, 2008
"A growing number of diplomats and policy analysts now express satisfaction that earlier predictions of a widely nuclearized world have been proved wrong, but it is largely just the timing that was off. Non-proliferation functionaries would earnestly disagree with such a gloomy assessment, as they must because of the business they are in. It is natural that they cite their successes, and necessary that they struggle on. But despite the occasional collapse of nuclear-weapons programs, and the inconveniencing of programs in place,... over the years few can have harbored illusions about the trend. Proliferation is a ratcheting affair that moves in fits and starts, and often slips backwards, but gradually and incrementally progresses. Diplomatic efforts to suppress it are weakened by national jealousies, UN-style dithering, higher geopolitical priorities, the sheer volume of international trade, and, at the most fundamental level, the inability of the Great Powers themselves to disarm. In a world where perhaps ten countries have already acquired the bomb, and another thirty have the capacity to build one relatively fast, rational reasons for choosing that path will now and then arise. If even Pakistan can go nuclear, almost any other nation can as well."
-- William Langewiesche, from "The Point of No Return"
U.S.-India Nuclear Cooperation: http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/npr/vol14/143/143weiss.pdf
North Korea: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/2340405.stm and attached file
Iran: Attached file via email
Additional Readings (for anyone interested):
The Wrath of Khan: http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200511/aq-khan
The Point of No Return: http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200601/aq-khan
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